Katrina Timeline

It is hoped that, by recording the events surrounding Hurricane Katrina's destruction of New Orleans on August 29, 2005, some insight will be gained into the mechanism of disaster. We need to understand how Federal and local government, Republican and Democratic alike, could be so inadequate to a calamity that had been predicted for decades. What emerges from any attempt at doing so is no less than a damning account of corruption, indifference, racism, classism, oppression, ignorance, historical mistrust, and finally a near-total breakdown in all levels of American political and social institutions.

If we learn anything from the loss of New Orleans, it is that we have to do better than this.

Where possible, all times are Central.
T= 0610 Central Daylight Time, August 29, 2005
(Approximate landfall of Katrina's eye)

Humorous graphics are originals made at the time,
by various unknown people, few of whom claimed copyright.
They are best regarded as the Internet version of editorial cartoons.

Precise locations of levee breaches
have been determined from personal examination of aerial photos,
because the various media accounts differ greatly.

Map of New Orleans

La Nouvelle-Orléans is founded by Jean-Baptiste Le Moyne de Bienville on one of the few high places near a Native American trading portage along what is now called the Bayou St. John between the Mississippi and Lake Pontchartrain. The original French Quarter aka the Vieux Carre (Old Square) is still one of the few parts of New Orleans that is above sea level. The city grows along a bend in the river, hence the name "Crescent City." Periodic floods, swampy conditions, mosquitoes, yellow fever, and humidity cause health hazards, and the people who die then have to be buried above ground in the city's notorious cemetaries due to water intrusion.

The New Orleans City Council passes Ordinance 7170, authorizing the study of a drainage system for the city. Two years later, engineers design a complicated system of drainage canals and pipes, fed by eight proposed pumping stations. (These are not finished until well into the 1940s.) In 1902, the Drainage Commission merges with the Sewerage and Water Board, and hires the famous Albert Baldwin Wood, who goes on to design the world's largest and most powerful pumps for New Orleans. Some of these are still going strong when Katrina arrives, often holding up better than the newer designs.

The city begins to grow beyond its original boundaries, as marsh land is drained and rendered habitable. By the end of the twentieth century, New Orleans is pumping many millions of gallons out of the city just to keep ground water from filling it up again, let alone to keep rain water from accumulating.

New Orleans votes to greatly expand the drainage system and increase the capacity of its pumps. Wood designs several huge screw pumps that can move vast amounts of water. Ultimately his name appears on one of the pumping stations, where it remains to this day.

The city continues to expand its geographical size, ultimately (and over some objections) occupying the very low-lying marshy district that became the Lower Ninth Ward. Unfortunately, the removal of water from these areas causes the ground to dry and subside, making it ever lower as years elapse, and guaranteeing that any floods will be that much deeper. Meanwhile, the continuing construction of levees and floodwalls robs the Delta area to the south of its yearly replenishment of the soil by muddy flood waters, to the point where these marshes have largely vanished by the time of Katrina. This eliminates one important buffer between New Orleans and landfalling Gulf hurricanes.

The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 begins in earnest when 1200 feet of a government levee collapse south of Cairo, IL, flooding 175,000 acres. Tens of thousands of people are displaced. In a grim parallel to Katrina, affluent whites are able to flee flood-prone areas, while poor African Americans are left behind.

As the weeks go by, flooding cascades down the river, which is swollen to undreamed of levels. In the state of Mississippi, 13,000 displaced African Americans from the Vicksburg region are left stranded in a makeshift tent camp on a levee while river boats are ordered to pick up whites only. The National Guard surrounds the levee to keep anyone from escaping and finding work elsewhere. Instead, many of the African Americans are rounded up at gunpoint and forced to join convicts in work gangs. Stories are told of abuse by guards.

After a 14-inch rain storm hit New Orleans on Good Friday, and with water nearing the top of the levees, the city of New Orleans chooses to dynamite out a 1500 foot breach of the Poydras Levee in an effort to save its business district. After two charges fail to release very much water, 30 tons of dynamite are set off, as recorded from several angles by newsreel cameras. The resulting tidal wave floods St. Bernard Parish and all the marshes south of the city, creating a pond which lasts to this day. The next day, a levee upstream breaks and lets water out of the river, at which point the dynamiting becomes irrelevant, after all that.

Ultimately, the flood covers 27,000 square miles from 145 levee breaks, thirty feet deep in places. 700,000 people are displaced, 330,000 of them African American. Many of the African Americans wind up in filthy refugee camps scattered throughout the area. There, they are treated like slaves, robbed and sexually assaulted by National Guard members, and denied food unless they wear signs reading "LABORER."

Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover comes swaggering into the region, promising all kinds of things and looking quite the hero. Hoover forms a Colored Advisory Commission to investigate the camps, but suppresses its report when he fears it might hurt his shot at the presidential nomination. Similar media stories are spiked, and the camps become a permanent part of the unhappy history of Southern race relations.

Hoover's control of publicity spin from the flood does help propel him into the presidency, at which point he quickly abandons the Colored Advisory Commission and ignores its recommendations. Its African American leader bolts to the Democratic Party and supports FDR in the next election. This begins a historic shift in Southern US African American party allegiance (the ones who were allowed to vote, anyway). In a process many fear will happen to New Orleans this time, many displaced African Americans never return to their old homes, resulting in a major migration to the north and west.

Among whites, the perceived Federal indifference to Louisiana helps create the Huey Long political phenomenon. Finally, when the Dust Bowl and Depression add to Hoover's cluelessness and low regard in almost all demographic groups, he goes down in flames as one of the least popular presidents of all time. FDR kicks his butt, and the rest is in the history books.

Some of this is documented, however vaguely, in the Randy Newman song, "Louisiana 1927." This contains the famous refrain, "Six feet of water in the streets of Evangeline."

US Congress allocates money to begin construction of the controversial Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MR-GO aka Mister Go), a 66-mile canal that starts in a wide intersection with the Industrial Canal (aka Inner Harbor Navigation Canal) in the Port of New Orleans, and heads eastward through Orleans Parish before slashing straight southeastward through St. Bernard Parish to the deeper water of the Gulf.

Proponents argue that this route will help develop industry and jobs in St. Bernard Parish by providing a deep-water alternative to the shallow and winding Mississippi. Opponents cite studies that the route will be subject to erosion and silting, and will also concentrate hurricane surge right into a funnel-like structure in the middle of the lowest part of New Orleans.

Despite continuing opposition, the canal is completed in 1965. It is never used as much as originally promised. Marshy St. Bernard Parish does not become an industrial zone. Relentless erosion slowly increases the width of the canal from its original 650 feet to a present average closer to 1500. It continues to gain 15 feet more every year.

As predicted, surge is amplified by this waterway, greatly increasing flooding in Katrina, and leaving MR-GO silted up and largely useless. Many will push for its closure. One destroyed house in St. Bernard will have grafitti asking to use the rubble to fill it in.

After doing considerable damage in Florida, Hurricane Betsy makes a second landfall near Grand Isle, LA, which is destroyed. Betsy's path is very much like Katrina's, passing over South Florida, and then re-strengthening in the warm Gulf of Mexico. It reaches Category 4 before weakening somewhat and reaching land as a strong Category 3. In New Orleans, storm surge from lake Pontchartrain breaches a levee near Florida Avenue, flooding the Lower Ninth Ward up to the eaves of some homes.

For the first time, total losses from a hurricane exceed the billion-dollar mark, giving the storm the name "Billion Dollar Betsy." The name is retired and replaced with Blanche. Soon after, the US Army Corps of Engineers begins a program to make all New Orleans levees and flood walls capable of containing a Category 3 hurricane.

The US Congress authorizes SELA, the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood Control project, after a flood kills six people in the region. Almost half a billion is spent by federal and local agencies on storm and hurricane mitigation, but it ultimately goes for nothing when the big one comes, because the last $250 million for critical projects is never appropriated. (New Orleans Times-Picayune)

James West and Chris Vaccaro write in USA Today: "A slow-moving Category 3 or any Category 4 or 5 hurricane passing within 20 or 30 miles of New Orleans would be devastating… The storm surge - water pushed into a mound by hurricane winds - would pour over the Pontchartrain levee and flood the city."

Cover date of Scientific American issue containing "Drowning New Orleans," an article by Mark Fischetti stating the following: "New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. Scientists at Louisiana State University (L.S.U.), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die."

The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that federal officials are postponing new SELA projects, fearing that "federal budget constraints and the cost of the war on terrorism may create a financial pinch for the program." The Corps of Engineers asks for $80 million, and gets around $57 million. This is not enough to fund the next 12 months’ construction and design work.

FEMA is transferred to the new Department of Homeland Security, losing its Clinton administration cabinet status. First day of DHS authority in natural disasters. Gradually, the priority shifts to dealing with terrorist attacks, and then to making do with ever shrinking budgets.

Date appearing on a US Army Corps of Engineers fact sheet about their New Orleans Hurricane Protection project, which is "designed to protect residents between Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River levee from surges in Lake Pontchartrain." Several key vulnerabilities are noted, including sinking levees and the almost certain failure of the 30-some huge pumps which keep the "bowl" dry even when there is no rain or surge. This overdue project includes new levees, new floodwalls, protection for the pumps, and a general upgrade to existing structures, all with a 2015 completion date. It is never funded.

After a series of budget cuts, Al Naomi, project manager for the US Army Corps of Engineers, tells New Orleans CityBusiness the following: "The longer we wait without funding, the more we sink. I’ve got at least six levee construction contracts that need to be done to raise the levee protection back to where it should be. Right now I owe my contractors about $5 million. And we’re going to have to pay them interest."

The Times-Picayune reports that "less money is available to the Army Corps of Engineers to build levees and water projects in the Mississippi River valley this year and next year." One engineer is pulled off Louisiana wetlands restoration, an important hurricane protection project, to oversee a $100 million study of wetland restoration in the Tigris-Euphrates valley of Iraq.

Both Louisiana senators meet with Marcus Peacock, associate OMB director for natural resource programs, and John Woodley, Assistant Secretary of the Army for civil engineering. They request more money for environmental restoration and water projects. They do not get it.

Walter Maestri, Emergency Management Chief for Jefferson Parish, tells the New Orleans Times-Picayune, "It appears that the money has been moved in the president’s budget to handle homeland security and the war in Iraq, and I suppose that’s the price we pay. Nobody locally is happy that the levees can’t be finished, and we are doing everything we can to make the case that this is a security issue for us."

FEMA announces a new contract with Innovative Emergency Management, Inc. "a Baton Rouge-based emergency management and homeland security consultant," to "lead the development of a catastrophic hurricane disaster plan for Southeast Louisiana and the City of New Orleans." FEMA doesn't announce that the company is a key GOP campaign donor (Greg Palast blows whistle on this one much later). The first phase is "to complete a functional exercise on a catastrophic hurricane strike in Southeast Louisiana and use results to develop a response and recovery plan."

Approximate dates of "Hurricane Pam," a very comprehensive disaster simulation, mischaracterized in FEMA materials as a "tabletop exercise," in which a carefully simulated slow-moving category three hurricane makes landfall just west of New Orleans. A storm track and parameters furnished by the National Weather Service are used with the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC) to simulate the hurricane. Real-time weather charts and statistics, in standard NWS formats, are furnished the simulation. The goal of this exercise is less to drill emergency personnel than to create a series of recommendations and disaster plans based on what would be learned from the simulation, which would be ultimately adopted as the official state hurricane plan.

For over a week, 250 people from 50 agencies, plus LSU, meet and respond to the simulated disaster. Various unsettlingly prescient conclusions include:

Working groups come up with a comprehensive set of plans. The data goes all the way to FEMA, which begins work on a national plan taking the magnitude of the potential catastrophe into account. More meetings are held.

Some sort of followup activity is scheduled for late 2004 or early 2005, to formalize the final hurricane plan and send it to the state for adoption. This is abruptly cancelled due to lack of funding. The report from Hurricane Pam simply stops short when it gets to this section. The report's adoption into policy is piecemeal, at best.

The Times-Picayune reports that the Bush administration has defunded the studies for a design and budget for finally raising the levees, and ordered the Army Corps of Engineers not to begin any such work.

Cover date of a National Geographic containing "Gone With the Water," by Joel K. Bourne, Jr.: "Some 200,000 remained, however-the car-less, the homeless, the aged and infirm... The storm hit Breton Sound with the fury of a nuclear warhead, pushing a deadly storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain. The water crept to the top of the massive berm that holds back the lake and then spilled over.... Thousands drowned in the murky brew that was soon contaminated by sewage and industrial waste. Thousands more who survived the flood later perished from dehydration and disease as they waited to be rescued.... It was the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States."

LSU New Orleans Pilot Study report: "A FEMA storm surge model, NOAA's SLOSH model, and now ADCIRC experimental storm surge models based on the most recent levee heights and detailed land elevation data for southern Louisiana, have verified that a slow-moving Category 3 hurricane or greater of these tracks have the potential to flood the New Orleans 'bowl.' Floodwaters have the potential to become hazardous or even flammable by floating diesel fuel, other flammable chemicals, and debris."

The city of New Orleans produces a slick emergency preparedness video for broadcast and DVD distribution. Everyone from the mayor on down is in it. It stresses "car pooling" and the importance of leaving the city if so ordered. Katrina hits before the video can be shown to the public.

New Orleans CityBusiness reports that the New Orleans district of the US Army Corps of Engineers faces a $71.2 million budget reduction for FY 2006. This is the largest single year reduction ever. The district freezes hiring for the first time in 10 years.

Don Day, a regional emergency officer for the New Orleans, Transportation Department, tells a briefing that the emergency plans developed after "Hurricane Pam" are only 10 per cent complete.

The National Hurricane Center publishes its first advisory on Tropical Depression number 12. This weak tropical cyclone forms in an area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas, when the largely dissipated remains of Tropical Depression 10 merge with a new tropical feature, thereby meriting a new number in the opinion of the NHC. The depression is expected to pass over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Rapid strengthening is expected in the unusually warm water, and so the Bahamas immediately issue a tropical storm warning.

NHC issues a tropical storm watch for Florida as the depression continues to organize itself into a strong storm.

NHC issues a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for southeast Florida as the depression becomes Tropical Storm Katrina out in the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane warnings go up in southeast Florida as the tropical storm strengthens. NHC advises that "Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."

NHC advisory #9 upgrades Katrina to hurricane strength based on observations at sea. The center is located about 15 miles from Fort Lauderdale. Wind picks up in Boca Raton, and power starts to go off.

Hurricane Katrina makes its first landfall, in Florida between Hallandale Beach and North Miami Beach, as a slow-moving Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Experienced news reporters and emergency authorities who stay to ride it out all say they are amazed by the storm's ferocity. "That's the biggest Cat 1 I ever saw," is heard more than once. The storm weakens only 10 MPH as it blasts over the low-lying peninsula, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong tropical storm.

Katrina quickly regains hurricane strength as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.

Katrina is reported to be "rapidly strengthening" in the warm Gulf waters, and it becomes a category 2 "major hurricane." Long range forecasts begin to mention a second landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast between the Florida panhandle and New Orleans. A FEMA memo notes that "New Orleans is of particular concern…"

Date of press release: "Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco (Loser #1) declares a State of Emergency in Louisiana." Blanco, called "The Queen Bee" by many, is a conservative Democrat who likes to tell people to pray a lot.

Date on document named "Proclamation No. 48 KBB 2005," in which (1) a state of emergency is declared in the entire state, (2) the state emergency office is activated, and (3) the state emergency is effective August 26 through September 25.

This proclamation is communicated with due diligence to state and local authorities and sets in motion the legal framework for a joint disaster response.

Ray Nagin (Loser #2), a conservative businessman who did a political flip-flop to become the mayor of New Orleans, orders a voluntary evacuation of the city. St. Charles Parish orders a mandatory evacuation. Nagin recommends that parishes nearer the coast comply with the state evacuation plan, so that everyone does not hit the highways at once. He stops short of a mandatory evacuation for the same reason, but privately tells the city attorney to expect one the next day. However, he warns people in the Lower Ninth Ward and Arabi that, "We want you to take this a little more seriously and start moving - right now, as a matter of fact."

As always in a mass evacuation, traffic backs up for many miles. Cars are allowed to leave the city on both sides of highways. Gas is scarce.

Of course, since city transportation is minimal at best, people without cars do not leave at all.

Nagin announces the use of the Superdome as a "shelter of last resort" for those trapped in the city.

For reasons that are still under debate, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff does not declare an "incident of national significance," an omission which leads to confusion getting the response going. Chertoff is a thin, beady-eyed, vaguely vampiric-appearing man whose veins pop out when he speaks, and whose name is also a Russian word sort of meaning "Satanic." From this point on, Stephanie Miller will refer to him as "Skeletor" on her morning radio show. Months later, Chertoff testifies that he knew the national significance status had actually kicked in as soon as the president declared the emergency. He leaves open the question of whether everyone else knew it.

A hurricane watch goes up on the Louisiana coast, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain, as Katrina makes Category 3 and continues to strengthen, now filling most of the Gulf of Mexico, causing bad weather from Cuba all the way to Yucatan.

The National Hurricane Center expands the hurricane watch to Louisiana and Mississippi from east of Morgan City to the Alabama line. Plaquemines Parish orders a mandatory evacuation, and offers bus pickup for people who cannot get to shelters on their own. Jefferson Parish orders mandatory evacuation for Grand isle, Crown Point, Lafitte and Barataria, voluntary elsewhere. St. Bernard Parish recommends voluntary evacuation only, because it does not intend to offer shelters. Two days later, all of St. Bernard Parish will be under water.

Katrina is 400 miles southeast of the coast, as a Category 3 storm. Rapid intensification is predicted.

President bush (Loser #3) makes the official written declaration of a state of emergency, and authorizes the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA , "…to coordinate all disaster relief efforts which have the purpose of alleviating the hardship and suffering caused by the emergency on the local population, and to provide appropriate assistance for required emergency measures."

This declaration is limited to a specific list of parishes. The list does NOT include Orleans, St. Bernard, or any other parishes in South Louisiana, which is the most vulnerable (and the most Democratic) region. There is NO federal state of emergency in the southern parishes.

(Full text is at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/08/20050827-1.html)

FEMA prepares a slide/PowerPoint presentation to brief unknown White House officials on the situation. It gives full and graphic warning of the catastrophic potential of a major hurricane in New Orleans. FEMA explicitly notes that a Category 4 storm surge "could greatly overtop levees and protective systems." The president, who is on vacation, never sees this. In fact, it is not clear who does, nor whether anyone ever gets the written message afterward. Later on, the people who might know refuse to say anything about it. (ABC News)

Date of press release: "Governor Blanco asks President to Declare an Emergency for the State of Louisiana due to Hurricane Katrina." In this request, Blanco specifically asks the President to include the southern parishes in his emergency declaration:

Which follows is a period of miscommunication which creates the oft-referenced, and now infamous, "24-hour delay," in which the president and the governor both seem to be waiting for the other one to give in. This apparent pissing contest will figure highly in the subsequent "Blame Game," as so termed by the bush administration and picked up by the right wing echo chamber as an attempt to dismiss all the outcry as partisan politics as usual. As this "game" progresses, the governor will accuse the president of attempting to take away state sovereignty by granting Federal troops and agents unprecedented powers approaching martial law. The president will say that the governor did not understand the situation.

The president issues statements on Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi, but not Louisiana.

Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center, examines the increasingly unsettling weather predictions, and makes a number of phone calls to local, state, and federal officials with a warning that the worst case is about to materialize in New Orleans: "This is really scary. This is not a test… This is the real thing."

Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the LSU Hurricane Center, warns media that "this is a worst-case scenario and everybody needs to recognize it." He notes that levees are in major danger of collapse, and that chemical contamination from the "Cancer Alley" plants near the Mississippi could render flood waters toxic. Van Heerdan, a controversial figure given to dire scenarios involving such dangers as fire ants, begins making the rounds of news media. He gets it pretty much right, ants or no ants.

NHC issues a hurricane warning for "The North Central Gulf Coast from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain." The advisory continues that, "A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."

Approximately 30 hours before landfall. This is the time recommended in the Louisiana emergency plan for New Orleans to begin evacuating in earnest. Nagin, who has already recommended people think seriously of leaving, does not order a mandatory evacuation for another 9 hours. As the story goes, he is consulting with anxious tourist businesses and attorneys about the potential for liability if he empties out the city.

NHC "Hurricane Katrina Special Advisory Number 20" raises Katrina to Category 4, with winds of 145 mph.

"Hurricane Katrina Special Advisory Number 22" raises Katrina to category 5, with "potentially catastrophic" 175-mph winds and 18-foot surge, higher than the levees around the subsiding New Orleans. Max Mayfield participates in a video conference call to the president, still on vacation in Crawford, Texas.

The end of a secure-video teleconference which also included Brown, Chertoff, Bush, Mayfield, Blanco, and many other officials. Later examination of videos and transcripts of this teleconference shows that the possibility of catastrophic levee breaches was clearly discussed, despite the initial assertions right after the storm by Bush and Chertoff that nobody had anticipated such an event. The video also shows concern about the evacuations. Brown expresses fears that the Superdome roof might collapse, and that DMAT medical resources are inadequate. Mayfield predicts one of the "top 10 or 15" worst disasters in US history. Col. Jeff Smith, Louisiana's emergency preparedness deputy director, expresses mistaken confidence that, "a lot of the planning FEMA has done with us the past year has really paid off."

Later examination of videos of this teleconference shows that the possibility of catastrophic levee breaches was clearly discussed, despite the initial assertions right after the storm by Bush and Chertoff that nobody had anticipated such an event. The video also shows concern about the evacuations.

Nagin, who has gotten an earful of what's about to happen, finally makes the voluntary evacuation of New Orleans mandatory. He declares, "I wish I had better news, but we're facing the storm most of us have feared. This is very serious. This is going to be an unprecedented event."

Residents are instructed to pack up and leave as soon as possible. The time left is approximately half the 48 hours that emergency planners had estimated would be required for any effective evacuation of the city. Vaguely defined, but never funded or finalized, emergency plans deteriorate into chaos. Police, school personnel, and other city employees flee town with everyone else, leaving buses standing unused. A few transit district buses do take people from neighborhoods to the Superdome, which quickly exceeds its planned capacity, meaning that the three days' supply of MREs becomes far less than that.

As predicted in the Hurricane Pam simulation, the favored classes (largely Caucasian) pile into the family SUVs and blow town. The underclasses (mostly African American) pretty much don't. An unknown number of people, perhaps 110,000, remains in New Orleans.

"Hurricane Katrina Special Advisory Number 23" raises the expected surge to 18-22 feet, well above the Pontchartrain levees, and inches below the ones along the Mississippi River.

At some point in this general time frame, and per recommendations made after "Hurricane Pam," the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries requests 300 rubber rafts from FEMA for later use by search-and-rescue personnel. The request is turned down. (Testimony before a Congressional committee hearing, 1/06)

President's address, from vacation ranch in Crawford, TX, contains 203 words about Katrina and 819 about Iraq. At the next ranch over, several thousand war protesters gather for the final Sunday at the antiwar Camp Casey.

NHC Advisory #24 relays an aircraft observation of Katrina's central pressure at an ear-popping 902 millibars, or 26.64 inches. This is as low as Katrina goes. While it is very low, Wilma will later manage to make it all the way down to 882 millibars, lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic. Satellite photos of Katrina are awesome, showing a fully developed cyclone with a large, deep, "stadium effect" eye, and an enormous wind field already stretching clear from Baton Rouge to Central America. This one is a monster.

US National Weather Service, New Orleans releases a very scary advisory containing such language as: "Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks... Perhaps longer.... Partial to complete wall and roof failure is expected.... Airborne debris will be widespread, and may include heavy items such as household appliances and even light vehicles. Persons, pets, and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death... Power outages will last for weeks... Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards."

AP predicts: "an environmental disaster of biblical proportions , one that could leave more than 1 million people homeless… a vast cesspool tainted with toxic chemicals, human waste and even coffins released…from the city's legendary cemeteries."

A week and a half later, Rick Santorum will call the three days of various dire predictions coming from the National Weather Service "not sufficient" warning.

Time stamp on e-mail from Marty Bahamonde, FEMA regional director for New England, to David Passey, FEMA Region 6 Director. Bahamonde is caught in New Orleans, and is therefore the sole FEMA rep in the city. Had he made it out, there would have been no one. E-mail says:

"Issues developing at the Superdome. 2000 already in and more standing in line. ... The medical staff at the dome says they will run out of oxygen in about 2 hours and are looking for alternative oxygen."

E-mail from Bahamonde to Deborah Wing, FEMA response specialist, regarding the Superdome:

"The current population at the Superdome in New Orleans is 25,000. That's a large crowd during a normal event. Among the shelter population are 400 special needs evacuees and 45-50 sick individuals who require hospitalization. The on-hand oxygen supply will likely run out in the next few hours. According to the ... [health and medical services] folks, the local health officials have struggled to put meaningful resource requests together."

Amtrak moves an empty train out of New Orleans to a safer area. A phone call is made to authorities offering space for 1000 people on this train for evacuation. "We offered the city the opportunity to take evacuees out of harm's way…The city declined," said Amtrak spokesman Cliff Black. Nagin later claims that no such call was ever received by his office.

"Our intel is that neither the ... [Oklahoma DMAT medical team] nor the public health officers staged in Memphis will make it to the Superdome tonight. Oxygen supply issue has not been solved yet either."

Heroic WWL-TV, the New Orleans CBS affiliate which has been in 24-hour coverage since Saturday, evacuates its New Orleans studio for a site at the LSU Journalism School in Baton Rouge. Sites at the transmitter in Gretna, and at WLPB in Baton Rouge, are also used. The station cobbles together a satellite and microwave link to feed program. It stays on the air, with a simple but informative and very immediate 24/7 emergency coverage. With only minor breaks at night, WWL-TV keeps this up for nine days. Its blog, along with that of the Times-Picayune, becomes a major information resource.

AM radio WWL also does its usual heroic job, once again becoming the station of record for a Gulf hurricane. Everyone calls the station, including storm victims in mortal danger, and even Ray Nagin, who sums up the entire struggle with FEMA in his famous declaration, "Pardon my French, but I'm pissed!" WWL teams up with competitor Clear Channel for a "United Radio" broadcast, which is relayed by various other stations, including powerful WSHB on shortwave with a global reach. Along with the webcast, this allows thousands of people throughout the world to follow the hurricane literally through hell and high water, not to mention the destruction of the studio. Two days later, with water rising in the newsroom, production finally relocates to Baton Rouge.

Both stations' transmitters, in storm-hardened buildings, manage to find enough generator fuel to stay on the air.

NHC Intermediate Advisory #25B has some good news and some bad news. Good news is that Katrina, which had been heading straight for New Orleans, was beginning to wobble to the east, taking the city out of the eye wall and the deadly northeast quadrant. Good news is also that Katrina has dropped a bit, down to a strong Category 4. Bad news is that Category 4 is like being hit by a semi instead of a train, and that hurricane force winds have already started in New Orleans, with the storm still 130 miles away.

The Department of Homeland Security sends a report to the White House Situation Room, with a warning that flooding "could leave the New Orleans metro area submerged for weeks or months," and also that damage would run into the tens of billions. This makes it rather odd that later they will all say they had no dream such a thing could happen. (ABC News)

Jefferson Parish emergency manager Walter Maestri reports from the operations center that he has no reports of wind damage or tidal surge problems, though he also notes that the pumping of water from New Orleans is raising the levels of drainage canals to dangerous stages.

Kenner, LA pulls police off the streets as wind gusts increase. Eye still just offshore.

Even before the eye passes east of New Orleans, the first surge coming out of Lake Borgne hits St. Bernard Parish to the southeast. As feared, it blasts into the MR-GO, quickly blowing out the levee for around 90 per cent of its length, and sealing St. Bernard's watery doom.

Back in New Orleans, a separate flooding incident is reported in the northeast, where water begins to top low walls that were never improved after the money ran out in 1965. [Satellite photos show huge sections of this wall missing, and one entire housing project simply gone. -Hugh '06]

By this point three of the four levees around St. Bernard Parish southeast of New Orleans have failed in multiple locations, flooding the entire parish. (The other one goes later.) A giant wave not unlike last year's tsunami rolls across the entire region. At St. Rita's nursing home in Chalmette, where they have decided to ride out the storm rather than try to move frail patients, a rumbling sound is heard. Immediately afterward, the building is hit by the wave, which quickly floods the outside up to the roof line. Water pours in through ventilation holes, filling the building. 25 of 60 patients are rescued. 5 of these die soon after. The rapidly decomposing bodies of the other 35 are discovered days later, when authorities search the building and adjoining grounds. In this and other parts of the storm area, the total of dead hospital and nursing home patients ultimately reaches 200.

In Meraux, storage tanks at the Murphy Oil refinery rupture, spilling 1.1 million gallons.

The westward-flowing surge is concentrated by a natural funnel which connects several waterways from both lakes with a ship turning basin intersecting the 5.5-mile Industrial Canal, aka the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal. This channel links Lake Pontchartrain with the Mississippi River using locks at the river (southern) end to compensate for the different water levels.

This concentrated surge builds explosively in the Industrial Canal, smashing into the closed locks, where it has nowhere to go. It instantly rises in the canal, quickly overtopping the aging concrete flood walls set into the earthen levees. Flooding begins on both sides of the canal as water pours over the banks. The city's pumps begin to fail due to power disruption (no backup generators) and water intrusion into unprotected equipment, just as predicted in the request for the improvements that were never funded.

At the north end of the canal, a power station floods. Drainage canals along the Interstate 10 are overwhelmed, and a barge washes into the bridge where the highway crosses the canal to the north of the turning basin.

Just south of this highway, where the CSX railroad crosses the canal in a 2-track bridge, the first real New Orleans levee breach takes place, around 5 AM. Water sloshing back up the canal overtops low flood walls, and spills through gates damaged by a previous train derailment onto the tracks. Temporary sandbags (if any - media accounts differ) wash away, and water begins to run quickly into Gentilly and East New Orleans, worsening the existing flood. Farther south, a flood wall begins to fail in multiple places. By the time the satellite pictures are taken a couple of days later, the water has receded, leaving a damaged mess where a functioning railroad bridge had been, and to the south a completely cleared out area which had been a neighborhood. At least three levee breaches are visible, though none as serious as what is about to happen elsewhere on this canal.

"Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 26A" reports the now rapidly weakening Katrina making landfall SE of New Orleans on the Louisiana coast as a strong Category 4 storm [later officially downgraded to a Category 3], with 145 mph winds [later lowered to 127] and predicted surge of 28 feet. NHC warns that "some levees in the greater New Orleans area could be overtopped." In fact, this is already happening in a few places.

This grainy, static-y satellite picture is the last radiofacsimile broadcast of Katrina from NMG, the US Coast Guard's New Orleans Communication Station. It shows the hurricane's eye just to the east, pretty much as close as it ever got to the station. This transmitter went off the air soon afterward. Although it had only minor damage, it did not come back on the air for around three weeks.

The second major levee breach occurs on the Industrial Canal complex. 150 feet of the undermined eastern flood wall fail just below the Florida Avenue bridge, at the north end of the now-submerged Surekote Road, a couple of blocks west of the dead end of Tennessee Street up against another levee. Water pours into a low-lying section of the Lower Ninth Ward, a disadvantaged, African American district in a known flood area. Across the canal, the huge Florida Avenue Pumping Station is overwhelmed, then damaged, and finally inoperative.

Ray Nagin tells a radio interview that water is breaching the Industrial Canal floodwall into the Ninth Ward, and that some flooding has occurred east of the Industrial Canal. He reports that the Florida Avenue pumping station next to the levee breach has failed, and that he has unconfirmed messages regarding people trapped on roofs. (People are confirmed on roofs in St. Bernard Parish.)

Other reports: city 911 system inoperative. Charity Hospital losing windows and on emergency power. The pedestrian walkway at this hospital has NOT collapsed, previous reports notwithstanding. Four pumps knocked out by flooding, one restored to partial service. Reports of groans in the Superdome when the power fails around 7 AM.

Bahamonde, near the Superdome, is aware only that pumps are failing. He reports, in error, that there is "no widespread flooding yet."

At the most critical moment of the worst U.S. disaster in any of our lifetimes, Cindy Taylor sends the following remarkable e-mail to FEMA head Michael Brown (Loser #4):

Approximate time stamps on e-mails which show the first reports of the levee breaches reaching Washington. While vacationing top officials gallivant around the country doing photo ops and trying to minimize the Cindy Sheehan political damage, staffers at the White House and 28 executive agencies begin to learn the seriousness of the situation.

While Brown's staff is dazzled by his fashion prowess, the third and worst breach occurs on the Industrial Canal. This time it is at the southern end of Surekote Road, just south of the previous break, and north of another drawbridge, where Claiborne Avenue crosses over. Again, the flood wall's insufficently deep underground pilings begin to undermine and fail.

With an explosive concussion described as sounding like a huge bomb, 800 feet of the levee burst open. Huge cement walls are thrown aside, as if kicked by an unseen giant. Earthen embankments the size of small hills are simply lifted off their rapidly liquifying bases. A tsunami-like wall of water blasts into the Ninth Ward, simply removing everything in its path. Aging but well-built shotgun shacks are floated away in one piece like boats, to wind up in someone else's neighborhood. A surprising number of blocks nearest the breach look like a less-burned Hiroshima. Everything is gone.

The giant current yanks on the moorings of several huge, very heavy, barges in the canal. One bright red, 195-foot, oil barge snaps free and sails right through the new breach into the Lower Ninth Ward. With another explosive shock wave, this barge thumps into the muddy bottom, knocks over a power line, reduces several houses to instant kindling wood, and finally comes to rest near the canal. A school bus winds up against the barge, in a vaguely obscene, nose-forward position more resembling a breast-feeding kitten or a tiny pilot fish servicing a shark.

Later on, there is unproveable speculation that the barge hit might not have been an accident, but a plan to clear out the low-income African-American neighborhood for land development. This theory is given traction by a historical accounts of racist behavior in the Great 1927 Flood, but discounted by US Army engineers who say the barge floated across. Days later, giant cranes remove other barges from the supports of a bridge, where they threaten the integrity of the structure. This one, however, remains right where it is for another six months, before finally being cut up and taken to a warehouse.

The flooding of New Orleans is now well under way. Thousands are trapped in attics and on roofs, and the storm has hours to go. Ultimate flood depth tops out around 12-15 feet in places.

As hell and high water strike an American city, the head of the most important Federal disaster agency sends the following reply to Cindy Taylor's e-mail:

As an American city flies into pieces all around him, Marty Bahamonde sends the following e-mail to Brown, Taylor, and several others:

As thousands of people in an American city fight to survive, Brown answers Bahamonde's e-mail as follows:

The flood reaches the Louisiana National Guard headquarters in Jackson Barracks (named for Andrew Jackson, winner of the nearby Battle of New Orleans in the War of 1812). Despite the site's known flooding danger, lying as it does at the southeast end of the Lower Ninth Ward, a sizeable contingent of troops have been hunkered down there, awaiting duty in the post-hurricane phase. Instead, they have to save themselves, as the building fills up with water. National Guard trucks are also lost in the flood, and communications equipment is destroyed. The Guard's response is delayed 24 hours, and its effectiveness is badly compromised. Some of the Guard make it to the Superdome, at least increasing the military presence there in the crazy hours to come.

Bush finally includes the southern Louisiana parishes in a "Statement on Federal Disaster Assistance for Louisiana." Federal assistance and special disaster funding are finally legally authorized in the southern parishes. The "24-hour delay" ends. Of course, now the hurricane has made landfall.

Reports that water is 6-8 feet deep in the Lower Ninth Ward. Water over a floodwall near the Lakefront Airport next to the giant levees running along Lake Pontchartrain. For some reason, this wall is lower than the rest of the lake's levee system, which neither overtops nor breaches. Water floods into another area west of the Industrial Canal.

Report by ham radio to the National Hurricane Center that the Superdome roof is losing pieces. Indeed, it is soon evident that 2/3 of the roof's protective plastic covering has been blown away, and of course the rain is coming in through what appear to be two large hatch covers removed by the storm. However, later examination shows no major structural damage to the roof.

An eastern section of the wall on the London Avenue Canal fails near Mirabeau Road. Giant cement sections are spread apart, or snapped off their steel and concrete supports. Undermined earthen levees are lifted and moved, largely intact, for 30 feet in places. Water lifts homes off foundations, moving one of them 120 feet, completely clearing out an area alongside the levee. Homes farther away are flooded up to the eaves, for block after block.

Matthew Green, at the National Hurricane Center in FL, sends the following e-mail to Michael Lowder of FEMA:

Matthew Green sends the following e-mail to Edward Buikema, and cc's Michael Lowder:

Wind shifts to the west as the eye moves northward from New Orleans. Surge recedes in the canals, but rises quickly in Lake Pontchartrain. Water picks up enormous concrete roadway slabs on the Interstate 10 Twin Bridges between New Orleans and Slidell, and drops them into the water like little rocks.

Al Naomi, USACE project manager, receives word that the rising lake has topped a low flood barrier near the marina and yacht club, where the lake meets the north end of the 17th Street Canal dividing New Orleans from Metarie, LA. Buildings on the lake front are smashed into kindling wood, which accumulates near the "hurricane proof" Hammond Highway bridge.

At some unknown time between 10:00 and 10:30, the levee and flood wall along the eastern (New Orleans) side of the canal, adjacent to Bellaire Road and south of the Hammond bridge, are undermined. The situation is not helped by the uprooting of a large oak tree by wind, which tears a large hole in the muddy ground.

Flood walls in this stretch of the canal are not overtopped. In fact, Katrina never even reaches the rated category 3 conditions in this area, and the high water mark is two feet below the top of the wall. However, the shallow support pilings fail once more, blowing out six hundred feet of the canal with another explosive shock wave, this one strong enough to knock out the walls of nearby homes. Engineers marvel at the extreme damage to the reinforced concrete flood walls, which are spread apart, undermined, and/or snapped from their supports, and then thrown aside like nothing, with the pieces vanishing below the murky water. A long stretch of the earth embankment is lifted aside by the water. It winds up, grass and all, around 45 feet east of where it had been.

Water now gushes into the northwestern portions of New Orleans, through breaches in the high walls, and around bridges and low spots never raised far enough. Huge areas of "the bowl" fill up, slowly but steadily, mile after mile, creeping across the city all night long, surprising people who have gone to sleep in dry homes. Freeways become islands, with offramps to nowhere. Hospitals become accessible only by helicopter - when it's safe enough to fly them. The water level in the city does not equalize with Lake Pontchartrain for another two days, ultimately leaving much of it 6-9 feet deep.

Later, people will wonder why these levees did so badly when they never reached their design limits. Many web sites carry the same uncorroborated report that burn marks and residues of two different military explosives were found on the cement by a diver, supposed evidence that the New Orleans side was blown up to save Metarie, a more affluent area. A similar story becomes something of a folk wisdom in the Lower Ninth Ward, along with the barge theory. This, as we have noted twice now, receives credence from the historic dynamiting of levees in 1927.

Another, later, theory suggests corruption by the contractors building the levee. However the text of an earlier lawsuit surfaces, showing that problems were known to everyone involved. All agree that the levees were probably never built to the design spec in the first place, and could not even withstand the specified category 3 storm, a condition that the 17th Street Canal never reached in any case. The soil of the earthen banks was not sufficient to hold the walls in place, and it failed. The steel pilings were not driven deep enough. One must indeed conclude that the 17th Street Canal was defective, that the authorities knew it was defective, and that when it failed they acted surprised.

In e-mail, FEMA's Michael Heath relays the following information from Marty Bahamonde to Michael Brown:

Time stamp (11:13 Eastern) on a "Katrina Spot Report" inside the White House Homeland Security Council. It notes the following:

The west side of the London Avenue Canal fails, just south of Robert E. Lee Boulevard, with yet another explosive shock wave, and a massive displacement of soil beneath the wall. This releases an 8-foot wave into the adjoining neighborhood. The City Park fills up like a bucket, leaving only the tops of stadium grandstands poking out like oval islands in a huge lake. There are now five major levee breaches in the city of New Orleans, one or two minor ones, and a dozen total.

"Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 27" puts the rapidly collapsing eye 35 miles east of New Orleans. Every window on one side of the nearby Hyatt hotel is blown out. NASA's expensive Michoud Assembly Facility, which does work on the Space Shuttle boosters, is damaged. Water covers a stretch of Interstate 10 near the Industrial Canal. Toxic flood waters invade the compromised city water system, requiring that it be boiled before drinking. Pregnant women are warned that they cannot even drink the boiled water. Ultimately, it becomes dangerous even to bathe in the stuff. Meanwhile, the water pressure fails, backing up rest rooms in the Superdome.

The already heavily damaged Southern Yacht Club on Lake Ponchartrain (near the first 17th Street Canal breach) is now on fire. There are no resources to put it out, and no way to get there short of fire boat, so it burns for hours and falls into the water.

On the other (stronger) side of the eye, in Mississippi, whole neighborhoods near the water are simply gone. Huge piles of wood and debris mark the limits of the surge. Floating casinos in Biloxi are now resting on dry land far from the water, and 80% of that city is in ruins. Nearby Keesler Air Force Base is so badly damaged that "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft have to use a different home base for the remainder of the season.

Large expanses of marshland south of New Orleans are now part of the Gulf of Mexico. In the city, ham radio reports of people trapped on roofs are passed to the Coast Guard, which is the only agency with the assets right where they're needed. USCG Vice Admiral Thad W. Allen (Good Guy #1) becomes seemingly ubiquitous in this period, when everyone else seems frozen in the headlights. The Guard begins making hundreds of rescues.

FEMA director Michael Brown sends his boss Michael Chertoff a memo requesting an additional 1,000 rescue workers from the Department of Homeland Security "within 48 hours" and 2,000 more within seven days. He proposes sending the workers first for training in Georgia or Florida, then to the disaster area "when conditions are safe." Among the duties of the workers, Brown proposes, is to "convey a positive image of disaster operations to government officials, community organizations and the general public." Soon after, experienced fire fighters, who could be rescuing people, are wasting their time in Atlanta being trained in public relations.

President Bush promotes his Medicare plan to a carefully chosen audience in the desert of El Mirage, AZ. He devotes 156 words to the hurricane in a 44-minute speech and dialogue.

Michael Heath relays the following e-mail message from Bahamonde to Michael Lowder:

Michael Lowder relays the report of the levee breach in Heath/Bahamonde's e-mail to Michael Brown, labeled, "Not sure if you have this…"

Beginning of a mysterious 40-minute conference call, in which unnamed emergency managers, probably including FEMA, discussed the evolving Katrina situation in New Orleans.

The call is mysterious because no record of it exists. It is conspicuous by its absence from recordings later turned over to investigating commitees. No one knows what happened to the recording, if it was ever made. Months later, some writers will begin calling this the Second Watergate Gap.

He was being told right, in this particular case. Later, the Federal officials will blame news media for saying that New Orleans had "dodged a bullet." The media, of course, are amazed to find anything standing. Given their poor communication, they are slow to discover that the city had actually taken a near miss from a weather phenomenon with the strength of a small nuclear war. People away from the scene see these reports and relax, causing more delays.

Public confirmation of the 17th Street levee breach by New Orleans city. Times-Picayune reports 4 feet of water in a neighborhood near Lakeview.

Times-Picayune reports knee-deep water near Xavier University, and flood waters pouring into Bayou St. John, overflowing it as well. Satellite pictures show what may be a levee breach where water is running out of the city into the bayou.

Reports are passed from ham radio to the Coast Guard that people on roofs need rescuing in the Treme district.

President Bush gives another Medicare presentation at a senior citizens' center in the desert of Rancho Cucamonga, CA. He mentions the hurricane in passing, promising that once damage is assessed, the government will move in and "help those good folks in the affected areas." At some point in this approximate time frame, Blanco calls bush asking for "everything you've got." She is assured that help is on the way. In public, she once again advises people to pray a lot.

As soon as it is safe to do so, police from the West bank of the Mississippi (including officers from Gretna City, Jefferson Parish, and state bridge security) close off the west end of the Crescent City Connection bridges to all foot traffic. This is done ostensibly to keep people who might be up to no good out of the evacuated area, though it soon becomes clear that it is really to keep poor New Orleans African-Americans INSIDE the area, so they do not flee the rapidly-flooding city into these more affluent bedroom communities across the river.

Later, Gretna chief Arthur Lawson says, "If we had opened the bridge, our city would have looked like New Orleans does now: looted, burned and pillaged." (Satellite photos show about the number of burned buildings one would expect in a flood… really not a large number.)

Later, Cynthia McKinney will have a different interpretation. She says that the bridge closure "might become the worst American civil rights episode of the 21st Century,"

The resulting massive confusion is responsible for much of the chaos in downtown New Orleans.

Bahamonde returns from a personal inspection of the situation in a helicopter, and calls Brown to report a 200-foot levee breach and heavy flooding of 85% of the city. Brown thanks him for the information and says he’ll call the White House. (Bahamonde testimony to Congress)

Brown's call goes through. He reaches an unidentified member of the White House staff. By midnight Eastern time (11 Central), this is general knowledge in the White House. (Testimony of White House spokesman Trent Duffy)

Chertoff receives the situation report from New Orleans. As he testifies later, he hears, "There are some reports of breaching, but nothing has been confirmed. We're looking into it." Later testimony also indicates a disastrous lack of communication between Brown and Chertoff, who have had past disputes over administrative issues.

Bahamonde: "FEMA headquarters knew at 11 o'clock. Mike Brown knew at 7 o'clock. Most of FEMA's operational staff knew by 9 o'clock that evening. I don't know where that information went." (Additional Bahamonde testimony)

Thus begins The Second 24 Hour Delay. Later, everyone from the president on down will insist they knew nothing of the flooding until August 30. Brown will call Chertoff a lousy boss, and Chertoff will call Brown an insubordinate incompetent. Everyone else will simply marvel at all this.

Chertoff (Loser #5) goes to sleep thinking New Orleans has dodged that proverbial bullet, and escaped serious flooding.

Despite the White House and FEMA's initial claims to the contrary, someone in the public affairs staff at FEMA headquarters in Washington, DC is apprised of Bahamonde's report and sends the following to John Wood, Chertoff's chief of staff:

For reasons that are still being debated, this news never really registers at the top of the chain of command. The next morning, Bush expresses relief that New Orleans had dodged the bullet, and prepares to swagger into Coronado (home of half the retired Admirals in the US Navy) for his observance of World War II's end. Chertoff relaxes, and goes to Atlanta for a briefing on bird flu. (Additional Duffy testimony)

The next day is post-hurricane weather at its worst. One survivor describes it as "molten" - hot, hot, hot, without even a breeze, plus an incredible stink mixing with smoke from the fires to just stagnate in a suffocating cloud.

Flood water continues to rise around the Superdome, flowing into the central business district. Much of Canal Street becomes just that. Water floods Fats Domino's house and destroys his piano, turning it upside down. He is rescued out a window, and becomes a missing person for a couple of days.

Sunrise ends a bad night in the dome. Whatever emergency power is available is not enough to run the air conditioning in the windowless structure. The restrooms are open sewers, the heat is unbearable, the condensation is like a steam bath, and the entire structure reeks with a suffocating smell of rotting sewage, human waste, and body odors. While portable toilets are provided in the official hurricane plan, these never arrive. Personnel from the Department of Homeland Security (Coast Guard, and possibly CBP and ICE) are present. The Coast Guard admiral visits the dome. A small, and quickly overwhelmed, medical triage is set up. At some point, the National Guard relocates its command from the flooded Jackson Barracks to the Superdome, leading to a welcome military presence.

Wild rumors spread about crime in the dome. There are stories of women being gang raped and killed, armed gangs holding hostages, bands of looters leaving the dome to pillage the city, drug addicts robbing and stealing, children brutalized or sodomized, and piles of dead bodies everywhere. These stories spread wildly over TV news, causing additional panic in the city, and even convincing the mayor and police chief, despite denials from the few National Guard in the complex.

Later, after everyone is gone from the dome, a crew of three shows up with an 18-wheeler capable of handling the reported 200 bodies. However, after repeated investigations, only six deaths are documented - 4 natural from the awful conditions, one drug OD, and one suicide. At the Convention Center, only 4 bodies are found, including the two viewed worldwide on TV. Later on, a Times-Picayune writer will ask if these inflated stories would have spread so quickly had the crowd in the dome been white.

Racist rumors aside, it is, however, still a bad night in the city, as some try to survive, some do other things, and many just plain lose it. Lots of gun shots all night. There are persistent news reports of looting and lawlessness throughout the city, difficult to confirm exact nature or severity. Everyone arms themselves, and the "law" more resembles the Wild West than a 21st century American city.

When day breaks, photos and TV news show small groups, mostly armed, breaking into stores. Canal Street is pretty well cleaned out. In the impossible conditions, it becomes very hard to tell who is actually looting and who is taking what they need to stay alive. Some people, of all races, are seen with jewelry and TVs… looting. Others steal cars… perhaps needed to transport people to safety, perhaps not. Others load up on clothes and shoes… perhaps to give out to other people, perhaps not. Police allow people to take shoes for themselves. People scavenge food from markets… the food would have spoiled and been thrown away anyway. Some is already spoiled, but people are hungry. The result supports life, but doesn't help the human waste problems any. Not looting.

[Update 7/24/06: It appears that one major source of the wilder "looting" reports came from telephone conversations between a local character named Finis Shelnutt, who also figured prominently in the Iran-Contra scandal, and such TV hosts as Chris Matthews and Bill O'Reilly. Shelnutt told exciting, if unproveable, stories of death and depravity while the news begged for more. More on Shelnutt, his very interesting connections, and his extremely bizarre interpretation of Katrina is on the Rigorous Intuition blog.]

Cops lack the most basic equipment. They comandeer cars, guns, and ammo so they can do their jobs at all. Some also loot, on a police force long notorious for its corruption, but again it is hard to distinguish. No matter. The news media play up scary rumors for all they are worth, no doubt helping TV ratings, but also increasing what is already a high level of unconscious racial mistrust. As usual, the media make the situation worse.

Around the shallowly flooded housing projects, which have long been regarded as the worst in the United States, people can be seen pushing huge cartloads of all sorts of merchandise into the buildings. Elsewhere, people are reportedly firing guns into the air, and at rescue helicopters. Are they snipers, or desperate flood victims trying to get attention and be rescued themselves? Who knows? Someone ransacks the Superdome office. Everyone reports a situation that has completely degenerated into brute survival.

Amid this total breakdown of civil order, Army Engineers make their first attempts to plug some of the levee breaches, but fail.

Controversial photo captions cause further accusations of racial profiling in the media. An AP photo of a young black male describes him as "looting a grocery store," while an AFP photo of whites in a similar situation describes them as "finding bread and soda from a local grocery store."

AFP withdraws its photo and asks all its customers to remove it from their web sites. AP makes no changes, but CNN changes the caption on its own web site to, "A young man drags groceries through chest-deep water…"

The person who took the AFP photo, and wrote its caption, surfaces to tell his side. On a blog, he writes that he had seen plenty of "looting" by both races, but in this case he asserts that the items carried by the whites had already floated away in the flood, therefore they had been "found."

At his "mission accomplished" Navy base in Coronado, CA, the president gives a 31-minute VJ-Day speech about guts, glory, God, terrorism, 9/11, resolve, pride, and a few words about the hurricane. Again, he says people will be helped any day now. In a photo which will instantly be likened to Nero fiddling while Rome burned, he clowns around after the speech with a country singer's guitar, while 1000 miles east an American city is being destroyed.

White House aides debate who will have to do the unhappy and potentially career-endangering task of convincing the president that the situation warrants a return to Washington instead of The Ranch. Finally, Scott McClellan announces that the president will return to Crawford, but will then cut short his vacation - by a whole day.

Press briefing in Baton Rouge: Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) reports that water is still rising, up to rooftops in places, and that only one road into the city remains passable. Army Corps of Engineers reports levee breaches in a total of five places on the 17th Street, Industrial, and London Avenue canals. All pumps inoperative. No power. No communications except by satellite phones (rare) and plain old short wave (until a few days later, when this is disrupted by unusually strong solar flares).

It is generally agreed later on that every communication system newer than Morse code performed badly.

The other LA Senator, a Republican named David Vitter, notes that the water is actually lowering slightly in some parts of town. This is true. He also says that New Orleans is not filling up like a bowl. This is poppycock.

Governor Blanco answers a question about the long-predicted "toxic soup" by saying that, as far as she knows, the flood water is just water. She asks, "Pardon?" when reminded that water can have things in it. For the 3rd or 4th time, the governor advises people to pray a lot.

Conditions deteriorate further at the Superdome, which is now a hellhole. As previously noted, one person jumps from a roof rather than take any more. The dome is closed to new evacuees. The National Guard maintains access control of a sort. People who have been "rescued" from the floods, or made it out on foot, or turned out by damaged hotels, begin to congregate at the nearby Convention Center, a half-mile-long building next to the Mississippi River. There are few or no supplies there, and it rapidly becomes a death camp. TV news shows badly dehydrated and traumatized victims sitting or lying dazedly next to the rapidly decomposing bodies of people who didn't make it. Stronger people line the street chanting, "Help us!" It is at least one day before anyone with FEMA realizes anyone is there, and another day to get supplies to the location.

Bad communication increases confusion over exits from the city. People are told they can escape by walking over the Crescent City Connection. Someone even posts this misinformation to the Times-Picayune blog. In reality, the bridge remains closed at the far end, and guarded around the clock by heavily armed police.

The Department of Defense sets up Joint Task Force-Katrina, with headquarters at Camp Shelby, Mississippi. This is a unified command for a great many National Guard and regular military assets, under Lt. Gen. Russell Honore (Good Guy #2 - more on him later). It reports to Northern Command in Colorado. Once it gets going, JTF-Katrina becomes a major presence in New Orleans.

Honore selects Brigadier General Mark Graham, a 5th Army deputy general in San Antonio, as the boots on the ground man for the evacuation of New Orleans. Graham arrives in Baton Rouge a day later, and the great sleeping beast that is the Federal government begins to stir to life.

New Orleans police pull all of their personnel off rescues to deal with the increasing lawlessness in the city. Armed gangs roaming at will. About 200-300 police have simply vanished. Later, some claim they were busy saving themselves and their families, while others say there was no point in protecting a dead city. Some cops are working essentially 24-hour shifts, grabbing sleep in the backs of cars when they can. One police station has a sign saying, "Fort Apache." The cops barricade themselves in there for protection at night, when there is no light to see anything. The station is reported to have bullet holes in the morning.

Unknown amount of lawless behavior by police themselves. Witnesses claim that cops stole 200 cars, 41 of them Cadillacs, from a dealership. Information will probably never be conclusive. New Orleans cops, who never had much of a reputation, now have even less of one.

Hospitals are in a bad way, running out of generator fuel and medical supplies. Attempts to evacuate critical patients are largely unsuccessful. No procedures for getting fuel to where it is needed. Patients who can't breathe are being ventilated with hand pumps, around the clock. Many die. Months later, there will be investigations into whether any were euthanized.

In Crawford, the president holds a 30-minute video conference with Dick Cheney (still on vacation in Wyoming), and others. Subsequently he boards Air Force One, and orders the pilot to fly his giant military version of the Boeing 747 low over New Orleans, making a tremendous racket and halting rescue operations for the duration. He stages a photo op of himself trying to look concerned as he stares out the airplane window. Scott McClellan quotes him: "It's devastating, it's got to be doubly devastating on the ground."

Although it is already legally in effect, Chertoff finally declares the "incident of national significance." He is barely off the TV screen for the next several days.

Late Afternoon - Bush, back at the White House, holds a cabinet meeting on Katrina and speaks for nine minutes in the Rose Garden to outline federal relief efforts. He says FEMA has moved 25 search and rescue teams into the area. As for those stranded at the Superdome, "Buses are on the way to take those people from New Orleans to Houston," the President says.

What people don't know is that a rather incredible bureaucratic snafu is in progress, involving FEMA, the FAA (of all agencies), and a rapidly souring, sweetheart, contract deal with a Bush-family-connected travel company. Buses are NOT on the way. There are no buses at the Superdome. There will not be the promised hundreds of buses for several more days, and then the owners and drivers will not be reimbursed in a timely manner. Neither will they ever get any kind of clear instructions on where to go. (Tim Shorrock in Counterpunch)

Finally, late at night, and to great press fanfare, a school bus arrives at the Houston Astrodome. However, it very quickly becomes clear that the bus did not come from the Superdome. In fact it had been "appropriated" by an enterprising 22-year-old civilian, who just loaded it up with desperate street people and drove to Houston with them. After some bureaucratic dithering and a search for weapons, the people are accepted at the Astrodome. Presumably, someone else drives the bus back to New Orleans, though you never know. Law enforcement dithering over this matter continues for months.

Red Cross asks FEMA for permission to enter the city with emergency relief, and is denied access. They post to their web site that FEMA has determined their presence would only draw more people into the city, and give those already there a reason not to leave. However, there is no way to leave.

Later, someone will also blame contractual arrangements between FEMA and private vendors, meaning that if someone brings in supplies it does not make more supplies. It only voids the contract for the stuff already on order. Interesting way to work a disaster…

Several remaining downtown hotels finally run out of supplies and close, turning out hundreds of guests who had been unable to get transportation out of the city. Two San Francisco paramedics lead a large group to the Superdome, where they are turned away by National Guard. They are refused supplies. Somehow they are told to cross the Crescent City Connection.

On the bridge, their group, which has become much larger (perhaps hundreds) is stopped by the Gretna police, who fire warning shots over their heads. Leaders are allowed to approach the police, who tell them that "…the West Bank was not going to become New Orleans and there would be no Superdomes in their City."

Amazing aerial photographs of New Orleans are taken by the QuickBird satellite. These are posted to the Internet along with the "before" pictures from March, which are widely downloaded. The contrast is quite sobering. The almost total flooding of the city is very obvious, with nearly everything having changed color from brownish grey to a dark, evil, murky, blue-green.

White plumes of water clearly mark the levee breaches. Water is seen flowing back out of the Lower Ninth Ward into the 17th Street Canal, as levels in the city continue to equalize. A mud flow on a now-dry embankment clearly marks one of the overtopped stretches of levee on the west side of the canal .

Other very clear and useful overhead pictures are taken by US government survey photographers in a Cessna airplane.

Sightings of Condoleezza Rice abound, all over the tonier parts of Manhattan. In the morning, the US Secretary of State, former National Security Officer, and bigtime bush confidante, is spotted playing tennis with Monica Seles.

Later that day, security guards swarm 5th avenue, where a number of witnesses corroborate the description of an incident at a posh Ferragamo store, where Rice buys several thousand dollars worth of shoes. Another customer is seen approaching Rice and shouting, "How dare you shop for shoes while thousands are dying and homeless!" Rice orders security to remove the person from the building.

That night, Rice is spotted at a performance of "Spamalot," one of the tougher tickets in NYC. After the lights come up at the end of the show, someone points her out. Several Schubert Theater patrons boo. The event is reported in NYC papers.

General Graham arrives in Baton Rouge, and is whisked into a meeting with Honore, Blanco, and several others. Public transcripts show Honore telling Graham, "Mark, evacuate the City of New Orleans and the Greater New Orleans area." Graham answers with a crisp "Yes, sir." It takes about 36 hours to get a full, major evacuation on the ground and functioning. Given the chaos in force at the time, this is actually rather remarkable. Problem is more that the process took this long to get started.

Bahamonde is cc'd in on the following e-mail from Sharon Worthy, Brown's press secretary, telling everyone to hold on and try not to die while Brown finds a nice place for dinner in Baton Rouge before going on TV:

Another bad night, followed by trouble at the Superdome as desperate people who have heard about the bus transportation attempt to rush the facility, which has been locked down, sort of, by National Guard. Acadian Air Ambulance company ceases helicopter evacuation of worst medical cases after gunfire of unknown origin. Emergency generator stolen at a dispatch facility; dispatch down. Triage, such that it is, now at an adjoining sports arena.

Bus evacuation off to a slow start. Huge line of people, few buses. Double skirmish line of National Guard troops keeps order. The evacuation of the Superdome lasts several days. There is at least one more political incident when the mayor allows 400 relatively clean and well fed hotel guests to the front of the line for bus transportation.

The Astrodome quickly reaches capacity (15,000 people), and another facility next door is opened to handle the overflow.

Communications continue to deteriorate. No landline or cell phones. Generators fail or run out of fuel. Agencies switch to hand hand-held radios, until the batteries run down. No procedures for charging on emergency power. No interoperability. No radio discipline. No plan.

A FEMA cache of hundreds of radios, with chargers, sits idle far from the city. Radio towers, which were double-guyed for hurricanes, do survive for the most part, but they begin to fail for mysterious reasons that engineers consider no accident. No one knows who's doing it, but everyone seems to think equipment is being sabotaged by Federal agents who want all the traffic to be over (nonexistent) Federal radios.

One communication department catches FEMA personnel disconnecting its emergency phone lines. They chase them off, and call for sheriff's deputies to guard the repaired lines. Someone else reports that antennas on their tower have been disconnected, and the lines have been reconnected to FEMA equipment secretly installed on the tower.

Highly trained ham radio operators in a Salvation Army disaster team report that they are being jammed. Weird, but technically possible, stories of powerful countermeasures signals from a Navy ship, along with jamming from Caribbean pirate broadcasters, spill out onto the Art Bell show. Art Bell, who has a ham radio license, tries to sort out the technically feasible radio malfunctions from his show's general weirdness. The FCC claims the ham radio problem is being caused by sunspots. On at least the HF bands, this is partly true, but it does not explain why a powerful Navy transmitter is apparently blocking circuits in poorly shielded VHF ham radios.

Another attempted evacuation of Charity Hospital is stopped after someone hears shots. Accounts persist that a sniper was shooting at them. (Anderson Cooper on CNN)

CNN Correspondent Adaora Udoji reports: "Three days after Hurricane Katrina, and the situation is getting more desperate by the minute. Thousands are still stranded in misery. They are marching in search of food, water and relief. They're surrounded by a crumbling city and dead bodies. Infants have no formula, the children no food, nothing for adults, no medical help. They're burning with frustration, and sure they have been forgotten."

AP runs a photo by Phil Coale, with a helicopter view of school buses sitting useless in a flooded New Orleans lot. This becomes a major controversy. People ask why these weren't used in the city evacuation plan before the hurricane. The mayor answers that bus drivers were busy saving themselves, and the buses could not even be moved to safer ground, let alone used to carry passengers. Regardless of who was at fault, the photo forever becomes known as "Nagin's Navy," or the "Nagin Motor Pool."

Thirty-thousand more National Guard Troops from across the country are ordered to report to the Gulf Coast, ultimately streaming in over a period of several days.

Media reports of damaged refineries and infrastructure cause a massive gasoline panic in Georgia. Long lines form at gas stations in Atlanta, with massive price gouging. Gasoline prices increase in most of the U.S..

Dennis Hastert tells an Illinois newspaper that "It looks like a lot of that place could be bulldozed." Blanco goes ballistic in a follow-up statement to the same paper, saying, "To kick us down when we're down and destroy hope" is an insult to a historic city which has given a lot to the world. Hastert later says he was quoted out of context.

Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition: Blanco announces yet another prayer vigil, then when asked about whether National Guard can restore order in the city, gives her infamous statement that, "These are battle-tested Louisiana National Guard back from Iraq. They have M-16s and are locked and loaded. These troops know how to shoot and kill and I expect they will."

Hair today, gone tomorrow: Barry Cowsill, the bass player of the popular 60s family band, calls his sister's answering machine to report that he is alive, but facing major trouble of an unknown nature. Cowsill, who had experienced substance abuse issues on and off according to the Boston Herald, had meant to fly to Los Angeles and enter rehab the day Katrina hit. Instead he had been lost in the chaos when the city evacuated. Unfortunately, this one reappearance is the last anyone hears from Cowsill, and he is eventually added to the list of Katrina missing persons.

US State Department advises that Condoleezza Rice has fled New York and is now looking busy in DC.

Later, Brown will say he was wrong and that FEMA actually knew about the victims at the Convention Center 24 hours earlier (still too late) but was unable to reach them until Thursday. Others will say he is lying.

FEMA's Robert Fenton, who is working in Mississippi, sends the following e-mail to "FEMA-LRC-Deputy-Chief" and a very long list of other people (not including Brown or Chertoff):

In the late night hours, a large explosion shakes much of New Orleans. It turns out to be at a chemical storage facility in the 3400 block of Chartres Street, on the Mississippi River east of the Industrial Canal, and ironically near Desire Street. For the rest of the night, the sky lights up from secondary explosions in a string of tank cars. When day breaks, the sky is obscured by a thick cloud of acrid smoke, added to by nearby (unrelated) structure fires, including one in a snack shop near Harrah's Casino. The chemical fire burns for two days.

Yet another bad night. Media report shots fired in the French Quarter, and blood streams from the body of a shooting victim in another part of the city.

The Red Cross again requests entrance to New Orleans with relief supplies. They are told that 24 hours will be needed to prepare for their arrival. 24 hours later, the priority has shifted to emptying out the city. The aid never gets there at all.

President gives a statement upon leaving the White House for the affected zone. Now he has changed his tune to, "The results are not acceptable."

At a press conference at Mobile Regional Airport, AL, the president changes his tune yet again. He says, "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job." Brownie, whose job previous to running FEMA was administering the judging for horse shows, is not doing a heck of a job, and he will be "rescued" (relieved of responsibility) shortly after.

National guard "cavalry comes over the hill," with supplies and a large troop contingent. A convoy of Army trucks reaches the Convention Center with massive loads of water and MREs. First public appearance of JTF-Katrina's Regular Army Lt. Gen. Russell Honore, a no-nonsense, hands-on general who tends to say "Over" at the end of his measured replies to press questions. Honore, a Louisiana African-American, is perfect for the job. He takes charge and moves out like the perfect John Wayne character, and is probably the second Good Guy to be seen in any of this. (The Coast Guard admiral, Good Guy #1, was the first.)

Along with Honore and his "Over," CNN carries the first public appearance of Good Guy #3, the Army Engineers' Brigadier General Mark Graham, who is serving as deputy commanding general of JTF-Katrina's Task Force West. Graham has been explicitly tasked by Honore with completely evacuating New Orleans, and (aided by a staff of 24 officers) he proceeds to cut through mountains of red tape and accomplish just that. 72 hours later, around 100 buses have emptied the Superdome and Convention Center, and a total of 65,000 people is finally out of New Orleans. These people go to their uncertain fate in the evacuee system.

A photo of Good Guy #3 would be here, except he is so unsung a hero that none can be found online.

Large contingents of National Guard troops arrive with weapons in an offensive posture, pointed at buildings and crowds, just as promised by the governor. Honore rapidly orders a defensive weapons drill, with rifles pointed down and fingers off triggers.

3000 people who have made it to the University of New Orleans, a campus right on Lake Pontchartrain which has become basically an island, are helicoptered out by the many choppers that are starting to fill the skies.

Engineers at a press conference estimate that they will need 80 days to drain New Orleans.

President reaches New Orleans airport, which has been taken over as a landing zone and a massive, extremely crowded, triage site for evacuating residents, with Blackhawks and other choppers bringing in thousands of sick, injured, or just dazed people. With cameras and recorders rolling, he dispenses the following gems:

NBC broadcasts "A Concert for Hurricane Relief," one of those live celebrity telethon things that always seem to follow every disaster, to raise money for the Katrina recovery. Kanye West stops the show when he ad-libs:

Mike Myers, West's co-host, reacts with a priceless look of stunned disbelief. Finally, the camera cuts abruptly to the next host, who is looking the wrong way and completely unready.

The telecast airs delayed on the West Coast. NBC broadcasts it with West's remarks censored out. The network's excuse is, "Kanye West departed from the scripted comments that were prepared for him and his opinions in no way represent the views of the networks." This, of course, causes a PR disaster for NBC.

The president finishes his tour, and announces that 7000 more troops are on the way. The Army Corps of Engineers begins its plan to intentionally breach levees in a number of places south of New Orleans to allow the Chalmette and Plaquemines areas to drain back into the MRGO and a freshwater canal. The breaches on the Industrial Canal are temporarily left as is, to allow the similar gravity drainage out of the Lower Ninth Ward to continue.

There is a brief incident at the Industrial Canal locks, when the Corps of Engineers raises a bridge to allow navigation, thus cutting an escape route from the Lower Ninth Ward. After residents storm the bridge, the lockmaster lowers it for the duration, closes up the facility, and leaves.

(L to R:) Good Guy #1 (using hat to touch wire), unidentified,
Loser #1, Loser #3 (scared spitless), Good Guy #2, unidentified, Loser #2

US Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist dies, opening a second vacancy on the Supreme Court.

The President issues a proclamation ordering the US Flag to be flown at half-staff at all federal buildings until Sept. 20 "as a mark of respect for the victims of Hurricane Katrina." Needless to say, everyone thinks the flags are half-masted for Rehnquist.

Police check out reports of snipers on the Danziger Bridge, which crosses the Industrial Canal near the levee breaches. Thus begins a real, old-fashioned, OK-corral shootout. The result is a confusing, Rashomon-like incident where everyone involved tells a different story.

Points of agreement in the news media (but see later): Two armed groups shot it out on the bridge. Multiple fatalities and injuries. Some unknown connection to personnel attempting to plug the levee breach. Police by that point were often out of uniform and carrying anything that would shoot, so they did not necessarily look like cops. However, these particular police were definitely on duty and doing serious work to restore order in the city.

In November, a prosecutor opens an investigation in an attempt to finally sort it all out. On Thanksgiving Day, the Los Angeles Times runs a long story on the whole confusing mess, complete with maps, circles, arrows, and paragraphs of information. The matter is far from concluded.

[UPDATE: A grand jury investigation resulted in indictment of all seven cops, four for first-degree murder, three for second-degree. Madison's dentist brother is now active in seeking justice in the case. He has been telling media that the civilians were by that point unarmed, and that the cops, though not wearing uniforms, did not identify before they started shooting. He also says both dead were shot in the back, one execution-style up against a truck.]

In a TV interview, Nagin criticizes bureaucracy and delays in beginning repair work on the breached 17th Street Canal. He says that helicopters were pulled off the dropping of bags into the breach to be used on rescue missions. "There are too many fricken cooks," says Nagin.

82nd Airborne, the Regular Army unit recently pulled out of Iraq after an abuse scandal, deploys to New Orleans.

Homeland Security finalizes an operations plan with Customs & Border Protection air and Border Patrol assets. A fast A-STAR reconnaissance helicopter is deployed to the downtown landing zone, and Blackhawk choppers bring in 87 Border Patrol agents to work with New Orleans city police. In addition, ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agents join New Orleans SWAT operations and water rescues.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers finally seals the levee breach on the 17th Street Canal, and the first large pump gushes water from the city back into the canal.

FEMA asks reporters to refrain from taking pictures of the dead. Reuters quotes a FEMA email as follows: "The recovery of victims is being treated with dignity and the utmost respect and we have requested that no photographs of the deceased be made by the media." Reuters further reports that unnamed "media groups" are accusing FEMA of censorship, in the same way that returning US war dead cannot be photographed.

Nagin orders police and law enforcement officials to remove everyone from the city who is not involved in recovery efforts. He says that people still there by the end of the week will be removed by force. Several neighborhoods that escaped the flooding refuse to comply. The city ultimately backs off from the spectacle of Americans being driven from their homes at gunpoint.

After being attacked by Blanco for leaving dead bodies rotting in the flood and heat for over a week, FEMA brings in Kenyon International Services, a Houston company of course, to assist in recovering the corpses. Media report that the firm has a bad record. A week later, state and federal officials will still be bickering over who is to pay the $119,000 daily expense, and many bodies will still lie uncollected two weeks after the storm. A month later, only 32 of the badly decomposed bodies will have been positively identified. A few weeks after that, FEMA stops processing bodies at all.

Carol Springman, a person of unknown affiliation (redacted on the released document), sends a very long e-mail to president@whitehouse.gov, vice-president@whitehouse.gov, Brown, Michael